Monthly Metal Review

Overview (April 2019)

Markets are generally looking quite upbeat, but you would not know that by looking at the metals markets, or indeed economic data. Equity indices in the economic powerhouses of US, Europe, Japan and China continue to perform strongly, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently setting fresh record highs, global bond yields are generally low in line with a more dovish Federal Reserve stance, indeed there are growing expectations that the interest rates around the world may be cut, before they are raised again. But, metal prices are underperforming, as seen by the LME Index that is some 14 percent below the highs seen in 2018, and 34 percent below the highs seen in 2011. The strong rallies in metal prices that got underway in 2016 and continued into early 2018, were halted in their tracks by the onset of the US/China trade dispute last year. While optimism for a trade agreement grew at the start of this year and metal prices climbed accordingly, the elusiveness of a new deal has led to stale long liquidation by those who bought metal in anticipation of a deal. There is a danger that the benefits of any trade deal are now dis-counted in metal prices. That said, it would probably be danger-ous to underestimate what a new trade deal could mean for the metals market given the supply chain is thought to be running with low stocks. After initially backing a relatively relaxed approach to-wards its partners and allies, US decided to end all sanction waiv-ers from countries importing Iranian oil. The Trump government said exemptions for China, India, South Korea, Japan and Turkey would expire from 1st May, 180 days after they were enforced. With an all-time high production of over 12 million bpd in the US, the White House expects that any price surge can be avoided by replacing Iranian barrels with those of the US. The latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) outlook sees global growth rebounding in the second half of 2019, on the easing of trade tensions, but it still warns that the risks to the forecast remain to the downside. The IMF expects the US/China trade dispute to have less impact on China’s economy than was initially thought and raised its forecast for Chinese GDP to 6.3 percent, from its previous forecast of 6.2 percent. This is because China has raised its monetary and fiscal stimulus to counter the fallout from the trade war, and an expected trade agreement will help growth. “The outlook for US-China trade tensions has improved as the prospect of a trade agreement take shape. These responses have helped reverse the tightening of financial condi-tions to varying degrees across countries”, Gita Gopinath, chief economist, IMF. There remain numerous risks, the trade deal negations could turn sour, Europe’s economy is slowing down, industrial production data released in April showed industrial production fell 0.2 percent and euro zone manufacturing PMI saw its great-est contraction for nearly six years, dropping to 47.6 in March, from 49.2 in February, although it levelled out to 47.8 in April. In addition, Europe is plagued by concerns over tariffs, rising politi-cal unrest and Brexit uncertainty. Talking about Europe, IHS-Markit’s chief business economist, Chris Williamson, noted that “downside risks have intensified, and the trend could clearly deteriorate further in the second quarter. New orders are falling at a rate not seen since 2012, and disappointing sales mean ware-houses are filling with unsold stock.” The IMF revised lower its forecast for this year’s EU growth to 1.3 percent, from its earlier forecast of 1.6 percent. In summary, China’s economy seems to be showing early signs of having come to terms with the fallout from the trade war and is well positioned to benefit from a new trade deal, as long as one comes along. The US economy generally seems robust, while Europe has seen economic growth suffer in the shadow of trade disputes and political uncertainty, but the former could be reversed if a trade deal boosts confidence and leads to restocking along the supply chain. Europe, does however, have numerous domestic issues that are unlikely to be solved by a new US/China trade deal.

Daily Prices

May 2019

Copper
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 6092.73
22-05-2019 5920
21-05-2019 6004
20-05-2019 5985
17-05-2019 6025
16-05-2019 6089
15-05-2019 6002
14-05-2019 6007
13-05-2019 6042.5
10-05-2019 6135.5
09-05-2019 6112
08-05-2019 6103
07-05-2019 6174
03-05-2019 6180
02-05-2019 6214
01-05-2019 6398
Silver
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 14.69
22-05-2019 14.435
21-05-2019 14.43
20-05-2019 14.415
17-05-2019 14.48
16-05-2019 14.795
15-05-2019 14.815
14-05-2019 14.755
13-05-2019 14.66
10-05-2019 14.795
09-05-2019 14.82
08-05-2019 14.93
07-05-2019 14.83
03-05-2019 14.655
02-05-2019 14.675
01-05-2019 14.88
PM MEAN AM Gold
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 1283.19
22-05-2019 1274
21-05-2019 1276
20-05-2019 1275.25
17-05-2019 1285.8
16-05-2019 1295.55
15-05-2019 1298.9
14-05-2019 1297.6
13-05-2019 1282.95
10-05-2019 1285.4
09-05-2019 1284.1
08-05-2019 1287.75
07-05-2019 1281.3
03-05-2019 1270.05
02-05-2019 1271.45
01-05-2019 1281.8
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 1283.61
22-05-2019 1273.9
21-05-2019 1273.575
20-05-2019 1276.05
17-05-2019 1283.3
16-05-2019 1293.625
15-05-2019 1299
14-05-2019 1298
13-05-2019 1289.275
10-05-2019 1286.25
09-05-2019 1285.1
08-05-2019 1286.475
07-05-2019 1281.25
03-05-2019 1274.3
02-05-2019 1271.2
01-05-2019 1282.8
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 1284.02
22-05-2019 1273.8
21-05-2019 1271.15
20-05-2019 1276.85
17-05-2019 1280.8
16-05-2019 1291.7
15-05-2019 1299.1
14-05-2019 1298.4
13-05-2019 1295.6
10-05-2019 1287.1
09-05-2019 1286.1
08-05-2019 1285.2
07-05-2019 1281.2
03-05-2019 1278.55
02-05-2019 1270.95
01-05-2019 1283.8
Lead
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 1825.13
22-05-2019 1787
21-05-2019 1795.5
20-05-2019 1797
17-05-2019 1809
16-05-2019 1826
15-05-2019 1780
14-05-2019 1768
13-05-2019 1785
10-05-2019 1823
09-05-2019 1855
08-05-2019 1860
07-05-2019 1867
03-05-2019 1880
02-05-2019 1859
01-05-2019 1885.5
Zinc
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 2768.10
22-05-2019 2713
21-05-2019 2723
20-05-2019 2705
17-05-2019 2755
16-05-2019 2781
15-05-2019 2730
14-05-2019 2715
13-05-2019 2719.5
10-05-2019 2751
09-05-2019 2725
08-05-2019 2764
07-05-2019 2835
03-05-2019 2867
02-05-2019 2832
01-05-2019 2906
Tin
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 19646.67
22-05-2019 19650
21-05-2019 19750
20-05-2019 19675
17-05-2019 19625
16-05-2019 19675
15-05-2019 19850
14-05-2019 19890
13-05-2019 19465
10-05-2019 19650
09-05-2019 19475
08-05-2019 19640
07-05-2019 19660
03-05-2019 19375
02-05-2019 19550
01-05-2019 19770
Nickel
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 11976.33
22-05-2019 11965
21-05-2019 12030
20-05-2019 11915
17-05-2019 12025
16-05-2019 12215
15-05-2019 11930
14-05-2019 11820
13-05-2019 11730
10-05-2019 11865
09-05-2019 11710
08-05-2019 11965
07-05-2019 12050
03-05-2019 12170
02-05-2019 12125
01-05-2019 12130
Cobalt
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 34733.33
22-05-2019 34500
21-05-2019 34750
20-05-2019 34750
17-05-2019 34750
16-05-2019 34750
15-05-2019 34750
14-05-2019 34750
13-05-2019 34750
10-05-2019 34750
09-05-2019 34750
08-05-2019 34750
07-05-2019 34750
03-05-2019 34750
02-05-2019 34750
01-05-2019 34750