Monthly Metal Review

Overview

After weaker markets towards the end of last year, caused by slower growth as a result of the US/China trade dispute, the markets, including the metals, have generally been in recovery mode. Indeed they have almost started to look too strong given the prevailing poor economic data and lack of a trade deal. The more robust, less nervous market performance came about as the Federal Reserve became noticeably more dovish in January, which they reconfirmed at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in March. The latest message from the FOMC said the US labour market was strong, but growth of economic activity had slowed from its solid state in the fourth quarter last year and inflation had declined. The FOMC called for no change in interest rates for the rest of this year, whereas the previous economic projec-tions had called for two rate hikes in 2019. Although this contradicted a recent statement from Philadelphia Fed president who expects “at-most one rate hike” this year, current stipulation among investors is that Fed may even go for a cut in 2019. The shrink in global as well as Chinese demand led to Chinese industrial firms reporting their worst decline in profits in past 8 years during the first two months of the year. This was despite China’s efforts to stimulate its econ-omy more while de-risking the financial sector. It does seem to be encouraging local governments to issue more bonds, which should feed through to more spending on infrastructure projects. Off-balance-sheet financing in Chi-na, which was being reined at a fast pace in last year, con-tinued to decline, albeit by a much smaller amount in the first two months of the year. The government has already lowered the economic growth target from 6.6 percent in 2018 to 6.0-6.5 percent in 2019. In London, the uncertainty around Brexit continues to puzzle the market and the Bank of England left the key interest rate unchanged at 0.75 percent while stating its intention to keep inflation close to its management target of 2 percent. Bloomberg recently reported that the global trade saw its biggest drop since 2009 when it fell by 1.8% in three months through January compared to the previous period. Germany has been show-ing particular weakness, its 10-year bund yield slipped be-low zero for first time since 2016 after the country’s manu-facturing sector continued to shrink and added to the fear of an economic slowdown across the European Union. According to Rabobank, the bund yields may get further pushed down in view of continued weakness in the Euro-pean and the US economy or the uncertainty in Brexit. Following the cues of the FED, the European Central Bank also announced that it would keep its interest rate unchanged at least in 2019. It also offered fresh round of cheap loans to banks to help lift the EU economy. The marginal lending rate will remain at 0.25 percent and the rate on deposits at 0.4 percent. The Bank of Japan agreed with the sentiments of its counterparts in other countries and revised down its own view on its exports and output. Japan’s central bank maintained a pledge to guide short-term interest rates at minus 0.1 percent and 10-year gov-ernment bond yields around zero percent. In January, Ja-pan’s exports saw its worst slump in over two years as a result of the Chinese slowdown. Another signal confirming its rough weather was the biggest decline in its factory out-put in a year. There still seems to be a race against time between whether deteriorating economic data sees more countries follow Italy and Germany into recession, or a trade deal fuels a recovery. The former would likely lead to considera-ble risk-off in equities and commodities, the latter is likely to prompt restocking along the supply chain. As such, the global economy is on a bit of a knife’s edge.

Daily Prices

March 2019

Copper
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 6451.02
29-03-2019 6485
28-03-2019 6385
27-03-2019 6338.5
26-03-2019 6361
25-03-2019 6328
22-03-2019 6375
21-03-2019 6520
20-03-2019 6487
19-03-2019 6500
18-03-2019 6492
15-03-2019 6410
14-03-2019 6409
13-03-2019 6529
12-03-2019 6510
11-03-2019 6435
08-03-2019 6398.5
07-03-2019 6458
06-03-2019 6505
05-03-2019 6553.5
04-03-2019 6420
01-03-2019 6572
Silver
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 15.32
29-03-2019 15.1
28-03-2019 15.195
27-03-2019 15.4
26-03-2019 15.44
25-03-2019 15.525
22-03-2019 15.46
21-03-2019 15.54
20-03-2019 15.32
19-03-2019 15.41
18-03-2019 15.38
15-03-2019 15.355
14-03-2019 15.235
13-03-2019 15.52
12-03-2019 15.445
11-03-2019 15.295
08-03-2019 15.115
07-03-2019 15.075
06-03-2019 15.095
05-03-2019 15.11
04-03-2019 15.16
01-03-2019 15.56
PM MEAN AM Gold
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 1302.29
29-03-2019 1291.15
28-03-2019 1306.9
27-03-2019 1318.25
26-03-2019 1315.25
25-03-2019 1319.35
22-03-2019 1311.1
21-03-2019 1317.3
20-03-2019 1303
19-03-2019 1308.35
18-03-2019 1305.35
15-03-2019 1302.65
14-03-2019 1299.2
13-03-2019 1308.4
12-03-2019 1296.95
11-03-2019 1296.35
08-03-2019 1294.1
07-03-2019 1286.4
06-03-2019 1285.55
05-03-2019 1285
04-03-2019 1287.45
01-03-2019 1309.95
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 1301.59
29-03-2019 1293.275
28-03-2019 1301.025
27-03-2019 1313.975
26-03-2019 1315.775
25-03-2019 1319.45
22-03-2019 1311.2
21-03-2019 1313.45
20-03-2019 1303.35
19-03-2019 1308.025
18-03-2019 1305.475
15-03-2019 1303.075
14-03-2019 1297.375
13-03-2019 1307.675
12-03-2019 1297
11-03-2019 1294.55
08-03-2019 1295.425
07-03-2019 1285.85
06-03-2019 1285.7
05-03-2019 1284.4
04-03-2019 1286.425
01-03-2019 1310.95
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 1300.90
29-03-2019 1295.4
28-03-2019 1295.15
27-03-2019 1309.7
26-03-2019 1316.3
25-03-2019 1319.55
22-03-2019 1311.3
21-03-2019 1309.6
20-03-2019 1303.7
19-03-2019 1307.7
18-03-2019 1305.6
15-03-2019 1303.5
14-03-2019 1295.55
13-03-2019 1306.95
12-03-2019 1297.05
11-03-2019 1292.75
08-03-2019 1296.75
07-03-2019 1285.3
06-03-2019 1285.85
05-03-2019 1283.8
04-03-2019 1285.4
01-03-2019 1311.95
Lead
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 2054.57
29-03-2019 2022
28-03-2019 2010
27-03-2019 1978
26-03-2019 1982
25-03-2019 2007.5
22-03-2019 2020
21-03-2019 2035.5
20-03-2019 2013.5
19-03-2019 2017.5
18-03-2019 2028
15-03-2019 2053.5
14-03-2019 2111
13-03-2019 2105.5
12-03-2019 2070
11-03-2019 2081
08-03-2019 2072
07-03-2019 2096
06-03-2019 2090.5
05-03-2019 2091
04-03-2019 2109
01-03-2019 2152.5
Zinc
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 2851.40
29-03-2019 3000
28-03-2019 2949
27-03-2019 2929
26-03-2019 2905.5
25-03-2019 2839
22-03-2019 2865
21-03-2019 2901.5
20-03-2019 2876
19-03-2019 2841
18-03-2019 2840
15-03-2019 2839
14-03-2019 2878
13-03-2019 2878
12-03-2019 2857
11-03-2019 2774
08-03-2019 2706
07-03-2019 2785.5
06-03-2019 2801.5
05-03-2019 2787
04-03-2019 2788
01-03-2019 2839.5
Tin
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 21444.29
29-03-2019 21575
28-03-2019 21450
27-03-2019 21450
26-03-2019 21525
25-03-2019 21450
22-03-2019 21600
21-03-2019 21475
20-03-2019 21375
19-03-2019 21350
18-03-2019 21160
15-03-2019 21340
14-03-2019 21285
13-03-2019 21250
12-03-2019 21285
11-03-2019 21125
08-03-2019 21410
07-03-2019 21550
06-03-2019 21575
05-03-2019 21575
04-03-2019 21725
01-03-2019 21800
Nickel
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 13060.71
29-03-2019 13015
28-03-2019 12780
27-03-2019 13025
26-03-2019 12850
25-03-2019 12765
22-03-2019 12930
21-03-2019 13145
20-03-2019 13195
19-03-2019 13095
18-03-2019 12810
15-03-2019 12845
14-03-2019 12930
13-03-2019 12950
12-03-2019 13150
11-03-2019 12990
08-03-2019 13040
07-03-2019 13380
06-03-2019 13610
05-03-2019 13450
04-03-2019 13160
01-03-2019 13160
Cobalt
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 31333.33
29-03-2019 30000
28-03-2019 30000
27-03-2019 30000
26-03-2019 30000
25-03-2019 30000
22-03-2019 30000
21-03-2019 30000
20-03-2019 30000
19-03-2019 31000
18-03-2019 30000
15-03-2019 30000
14-03-2019 31000
13-03-2019 32000
12-03-2019 33000
11-03-2019 33000
08-03-2019 33000
07-03-2019 33000
06-03-2019 33000
05-03-2019 33000
04-03-2019 33000
01-03-2019 33000