Monthly Metal Review

Overview

Markets are generally looking quite upbeat, but you would not know that by looking at the metals markets, or indeed economic data. Equity indices in the economic powerhouses of US, Europe, Japan and China continue to perform strongly, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently setting fresh record highs, global bond yields are generally low in line with a more dovish Federal Reserve stance, indeed there are growing expectations that the interest rates around the world may be cut, before they are raised again. But, metal prices are underperforming, as seen by the LME Index that is some 14 percent below the highs seen in 2018, and 34 percent below the highs seen in 2011. The strong rallies in metal prices that got underway in 2016 and continued into early 2018, were halted in their tracks by the onset of the US/China trade dispute last year. While optimism for a trade agreement grew at the start of this year and metal prices climbed accordingly, the elusiveness of a new deal has led to stale long liquidation by those who bought metal in anticipation of a deal. There is a danger that the benefits of any trade deal are now dis-counted in metal prices. That said, it would probably be danger-ous to underestimate what a new trade deal could mean for the metals market given the supply chain is thought to be running with low stocks. After initially backing a relatively relaxed approach to-wards its partners and allies, US decided to end all sanction waiv-ers from countries importing Iranian oil. The Trump government said exemptions for China, India, South Korea, Japan and Turkey would expire from 1st May, 180 days after they were enforced. With an all-time high production of over 12 million bpd in the US, the White House expects that any price surge can be avoided by replacing Iranian barrels with those of the US. The latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) outlook sees global growth rebounding in the second half of 2019, on the easing of trade tensions, but it still warns that the risks to the forecast remain to the downside. The IMF expects the US/China trade dispute to have less impact on China’s economy than was initially thought and raised its forecast for Chinese GDP to 6.3 percent, from its previous forecast of 6.2 percent. This is because China has raised its monetary and fiscal stimulus to counter the fallout from the trade war, and an expected trade agreement will help growth. “The outlook for US-China trade tensions has improved as the prospect of a trade agreement take shape. These responses have helped reverse the tightening of financial condi-tions to varying degrees across countries”, Gita Gopinath, chief economist, IMF. There remain numerous risks, the trade deal negations could turn sour, Europe’s economy is slowing down, industrial production data released in April showed industrial production fell 0.2 percent and euro zone manufacturing PMI saw its great-est contraction for nearly six years, dropping to 47.6 in March, from 49.2 in February, although it levelled out to 47.8 in April. In addition, Europe is plagued by concerns over tariffs, rising politi-cal unrest and Brexit uncertainty. Talking about Europe, IHS-Markit’s chief business economist, Chris Williamson, noted that “downside risks have intensified, and the trend could clearly deteriorate further in the second quarter. New orders are falling at a rate not seen since 2012, and disappointing sales mean ware-houses are filling with unsold stock.” The IMF revised lower its forecast for this year’s EU growth to 1.3 percent, from its earlier forecast of 1.6 percent. In summary, China’s economy seems to be showing early signs of having come to terms with the fallout from the trade war and is well positioned to benefit from a new trade deal, as long as one comes along. The US economy generally seems robust, while Europe has seen economic growth suffer in the shadow of trade disputes and political uncertainty, but the former could be reversed if a trade deal boosts confidence and leads to restocking along the supply chain. Europe, does however, have numerous domestic issues that are unlikely to be solved by a new US/China trade deal.

Daily Prices

April 2019

Copper
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 6445.10
30-04-2019 6442
29-04-2019 6376
26-04-2019 6393
25-04-2019 6375.5
24-04-2019 6437.5
23-04-2019 6430
18-04-2019 6448
17-04-2019 6509
16-04-2019 6460
15-04-2019 6456
12-04-2019 6490
11-04-2019 6432.5
10-04-2019 6447
09-04-2019 6498
08-04-2019 6432.5
05-04-2019 6419
04-04-2019 6444
03-04-2019 6483
02-04-2019 6431
01-04-2019 6498
Silver
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 15.04
30-04-2019 14.985
29-04-2019 14.97
26-04-2019 15
25-04-2019 14.865
24-04-2019 14.805
23-04-2019 14.975
18-04-2019 14.955
17-04-2019 15
16-04-2019 14.945
15-04-2019 14.935
12-04-2019 15.065
11-04-2019 15.16
10-04-2019 15.245
09-04-2019 15.255
08-04-2019 15.14
05-04-2019 15.195
04-04-2019 15.085
03-04-2019 15.165
02-04-2019 15.025
01-04-2019 15.07
PM MEAN AM Gold
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 1287.65
30-04-2019 1285.15
29-04-2019 1282.15
26-04-2019 1281.5
25-04-2019 1277.85
24-04-2019 1273.8
23-04-2019 1273.45
18-04-2019 1276.5
17-04-2019 1276.1
16-04-2019 1283.75
15-04-2019 1286.75
12-04-2019 1296.15
11-04-2019 1304.65
10-04-2019 1304.8
09-04-2019 1301.85
08-04-2019 1297.1
05-04-2019 1288.9
04-04-2019 1291.6
03-04-2019 1291.85
02-04-2019 1287.2
01-04-2019 1291.9
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 1287.05
30-04-2019 1283.725
29-04-2019 1280.825
26-04-2019 1282.85
25-04-2019 1279.325
24-04-2019 1272.725
23-04-2019 1271.475
18-04-2019 1276.1
17-04-2019 1275.975
16-04-2019 1280.05
15-04-2019 1286.2
12-04-2019 1295.225
11-04-2019 1301.725
10-04-2019 1305.125
09-04-2019 1302.425
08-04-2019 1298.55
05-04-2019 1288.675
04-04-2019 1287.375
03-04-2019 1291.15
02-04-2019 1288.75
01-04-2019 1292.7
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 1286.45
30-04-2019 1282.3
29-04-2019 1279.5
26-04-2019 1284.2
25-04-2019 1280.8
24-04-2019 1271.65
23-04-2019 1269.5
18-04-2019 1275.7
17-04-2019 1275.85
16-04-2019 1276.35
15-04-2019 1285.65
12-04-2019 1294.3
11-04-2019 1298.8
10-04-2019 1305.45
09-04-2019 1303
08-04-2019 1300
05-04-2019 1288.45
04-04-2019 1283.15
03-04-2019 1290.45
02-04-2019 1290.3
01-04-2019 1293.5
Lead
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 1948.85
30-04-2019 1941
29-04-2019 1947
26-04-2019 1924
25-04-2019 1902
24-04-2019 1905
23-04-2019 1927
18-04-2019 1919
17-04-2019 1930
16-04-2019 1942.5
15-04-2019 1932
12-04-2019 1910
11-04-2019 1942
10-04-2019 1956
09-04-2019 1977.5
08-04-2019 1980
05-04-2019 1973
04-04-2019 1988
03-04-2019 1985
02-04-2019 1974
01-04-2019 2022
Zinc
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 2938.75
30-04-2019 2934.5
29-04-2019 2888
26-04-2019 2917
25-04-2019 2870
24-04-2019 2859
23-04-2019 2882
18-04-2019 2854
17-04-2019 2927
16-04-2019 2919.5
15-04-2019 3000
12-04-2019 3010
11-04-2019 2980
10-04-2019 2945
09-04-2019 2936
08-04-2019 2960
05-04-2019 2969
04-04-2019 2993
03-04-2019 2975
02-04-2019 2938
01-04-2019 3018
Tin
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 20683.75
30-04-2019 19825
29-04-2019 20075
26-04-2019 19975
25-04-2019 19655
24-04-2019 19755
23-04-2019 20150
18-04-2019 20425
17-04-2019 20600
16-04-2019 20800
15-04-2019 20755
12-04-2019 20850
11-04-2019 20905
10-04-2019 20900
09-04-2019 21000
08-04-2019 21000
05-04-2019 21280
04-04-2019 21325
03-04-2019 21475
02-04-2019 21325
01-04-2019 21600
Nickel
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 12819.00
30-04-2019 12360
29-04-2019 12335
26-04-2019 12270
25-04-2019 12270
24-04-2019 12340
23-04-2019 12490
18-04-2019 12630
17-04-2019 12950
16-04-2019 12970
15-04-2019 12855
12-04-2019 12945
11-04-2019 13020
10-04-2019 13120
09-04-2019 13165
08-04-2019 13150
05-04-2019 13090
04-04-2019 13045
03-04-2019 13200
02-04-2019 13020
01-04-2019 13155
Cobalt
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 33977.50
30-04-2019 34750
29-04-2019 34750
26-04-2019 34750
25-04-2019 34750
24-04-2019 34750
23-04-2019 34750
18-04-2019 35500
17-04-2019 35500
16-04-2019 34550
15-04-2019 35500
12-04-2019 36000
11-04-2019 34000
10-04-2019 33500
09-04-2019 33500
08-04-2019 33000
05-04-2019 33000
04-04-2019 32000
03-04-2019 32000
02-04-2019 32000
01-04-2019 31000