Monthly Metal Review

Copper (May 2019)

The copper market is in a tug-of-war with the fundamentals getting tighter due to the limited new supply in the pipeline, while economic and trade headwinds are dampening sentiment. For now the damp sentiment is keeping consumer interest low, while at the same time is providing a fairly free rein to the funds to increase their short positions. Given this set-up it is not sur-prising that prices have continued to trend lower, giving back $715 per tonne of the $883 per tonne gains, some 81 percent, seen during the first four months of the year. At LME Asia Week in early-May, one of the main concerns was whether the high level of stocks in China indicated a slump in the country’s demand. Bonded copper stocks in Shanghai were assessed by Fastmarkets at around 574,000 tonnes in early-May, compared with around 444,000 tonnes in early February. In addition, stocks in SHFE warehouses climbed to 194,208 tonne from 119,727 tonnes over the same period. Copper smelter capacity in China is up by 1.1 million tonnes since the start of 2018, but tightness in copper concen-trates is expected to limit refined copper production, and with more smelter capacity chasing a limited amount of copper con-centrate, treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs) have fallen to multi-year lows. The China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) low-ered its minimum TC/RC to $73 per tonne and 7.3 cents per pound in the second quarter, which is below the 2019 annual benchmark of $80.8 and 8.08 cents, while spot TC/RCs for forward sales June-September are in the low to mid $60s/6s. India’s output also remains below par with Vedanta’s Tuitcorin smelter still not operating. Recent problems at its KCM operations in Zambia are also adding to the prevailing uncertain-ty in the supply demand scenario. ICSG pegged demand un-changed at 3.812 million tonnes, which meant the market was in a supply surplus of 41,000 tonnes. Apparent demand may look flat, but with China expected to see GDP growth of around 6.4 percent, actual demand is expected to grow by around 3 percent, so it does look as though falling prices has led to destocking along the supply chain and given the trade dispute that in unsur-prising. But, it raises the risk of consumer restocking, fund short-covering and fund buying, should a trade deal be reached. Such a development at a time when supply growth is limited, could see sentiment swing from bearish to bullish, in a short space of time. The ICSG lifted its forecast in mid-May for the market to be in a supply deficit of 189,000 tonnes in 2019, from an earlier forecast for a 65,000 tonnes deficit, made in April last year, while the International Wrought Copper Council (IWCC) expects a deficit of 312,000 tonnes this year.

Daily Prices

June 2019

Copper
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 5814.06
13-06-2019 5797.5
12-06-2019 5828.5
11-06-2019 5905
10-06-2019 5788
07-06-2019 5770
06-06-2019 5805
05-06-2019 5832.5
04-06-2019 5804
03-06-2019 5796
Silver
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 14.80
13-06-2019 14.795
12-06-2019 14.79
11-06-2019 14.695
10-06-2019 14.745
07-06-2019 14.91
06-06-2019 14.955
05-06-2019 14.84
04-06-2019 14.72
03-06-2019 14.705
PM MEAN AM Gold
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 1329.99
13-06-2019 1335.8
12-06-2019 1336.65
11-06-2019 1322.65
10-06-2019 1328.6
07-06-2019 1334.3
06-06-2019 1336.65
05-06-2019 1337.75
04-06-2019 1323.6
03-06-2019 1313.95
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 1330.20
13-06-2019 1335.85
12-06-2019 1334.5
11-06-2019 1323.475
10-06-2019 1328.6
07-06-2019 1337.475
06-06-2019 1336.075
05-06-2019 1336.4
04-06-2019 1323.925
03-06-2019 1315.525
Date(Fix.) ($/OZ)
Average 1330.41
13-06-2019 1335.9
12-06-2019 1332.35
11-06-2019 1324.3
10-06-2019 1328.6
07-06-2019 1340.65
06-06-2019 1335.5
05-06-2019 1335.05
04-06-2019 1324.25
03-06-2019 1317.1
Lead
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 1882.94
13-06-2019 1903
12-06-2019 1918
11-06-2019 1949
10-06-2019 1888
07-06-2019 1837
06-06-2019 1945
05-06-2019 1881.5
04-06-2019 1834
03-06-2019 1791
Zinc
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 2627.78
13-06-2019 2604
12-06-2019 2640.5
11-06-2019 2670
10-06-2019 2620.5
07-06-2019 2621
06-06-2019 2637
05-06-2019 2605.5
04-06-2019 2636
03-06-2019 2615.5
Tin
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 19285.00
13-06-2019 19500
12-06-2019 19325
11-06-2019 19360
10-06-2019 19280
07-06-2019 19630
06-06-2019 19110
05-06-2019 19110
04-06-2019 19250
03-06-2019 19000
Nickel
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 11756.11
13-06-2019 11920
12-06-2019 11745
11-06-2019 11825
10-06-2019 11600
07-06-2019 11580
06-06-2019 11710
05-06-2019 11765
04-06-2019 11800
03-06-2019 11860
Cobalt
Date(Fix.) ($/MT)
Average 30000.00
13-06-2019 28000
12-06-2019 28000
11-06-2019 28000
10-06-2019 28000
07-06-2019 28000
06-06-2019 32500
05-06-2019 32500
04-06-2019 32500
03-06-2019 32500